Getting the money back makes little difference if you don't have the money to put your game on the service in the first place. It may not affect developers who are established and have money coming in from past projects but that's not going to apply to everyone, not even to everyone who isn't just starting out. I saw someone in the NeoGAF thread suggest starting a Kickstarter to raise the funds but the idea of doing that just to get the money together to put your game onto a service seems ridiculous to me. That money should be being spent on development instead.
There's an interesting contrast in opinions in said thread about it. Basically most people (most who aren't developers) love the idea seemingly only because it means an end to Greenlight and the idea that it will stop all the low quality rubbish. But not everyone is convinced, some even think it might increase the shovelware as developers flock to publishers (who don't care about quality) that can foot the bill for their low quality efforts.
And thinking about that, I do remember a developer anonymously commenting on United Independent Entertainment (publisher of many of the crappy simulators on Steam) a while back, claiming they were only interested in volume and not quality. Once one game was feature complete, no matter how shitty it was and in need of patching they wanted them to move onto making another game, and another and another. This new Steam Direct system seems perfect for that kind of thing (though as a publisher UIE already skips the Greenlight stage I guess!)
There probably isn't a perfect solution for all parties involved, but an increased paywall for developers is worse than Greenlight I think.